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Author Topic: Does anyone bet on basketball here?  (Read 17295 times)

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fast does lie

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Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« on: March 07, 2017, 07:51:39 am »
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Just out of curiosity.... sometimes there are good lines, sometimes the results are insane in bball.  For example, first game of the season the Spurs go to Oracle and beat GSW by 29 points lol.  who would have thought.....
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LBSS

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2017, 09:20:33 am »
+1
i've done it a little, on college ball, and actually netted out positively (albeit for small amounts). but i've also done it enough to know that my success is luck and i'd be stupid to think otherwise.
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vag

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2017, 10:46:00 am »
+1
It is ALWAYS luck. It is 1st year of college probability theory.
Because the odds are never 'fair' , the total of the odds translated to % win probability is always above 100%.
So , the perfect example to illustrate this , is the absolutely even derby, a game that each team has 50% chances to win. The odds from the books will be something like 55% for each, summing 110%. Both teams are treated as favorites, giving less than 1:2 gains ( which would be the fair ). So it is a matter of luck if you do find the winner. But if you repeat the bet forever, you will be losing your money with a 5% ratio.
To make it even more simple, it is about the same as playing red/black on roulette. The book reserves 0 for him. By luck you may win more times than you lose for a given amount of plays, but eventually you will be losing your money with 1/37 ratio , because 1 of the 37 numbers ( zero ) is neither black or red.

PS: If you believe the book is wrong at estimating a percentage, then yes you have a case of betting and winning because of playing 'wise'.  Do you really believe you can estimate the odds better than him?
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Quote from: adarqui on May 17, 2021, 04:57:01 pm
it's the biggest trick in the run game.. go slow to go fast. it doesn't make sense until it smacks you in the face and you're like ....... wtf?

vag

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2017, 02:09:23 pm »
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Agreed.
However most often the handicap covers both options, so there is no edge.
Even if you find the edge ( which if you do , you gotta bet it ) , this is still a bet. So say a book gives 1/3 for a game that you are absolutely sure is 1/2. You must bet it, it is an edge and a HUGE one. Still , the true odds are 50-50 , so you might... lose! However on the long term you will be winning if you keep it that way.
What is the catch? They know. They never let the edge on the favorite, it is on the outsider. So you find the edge at a game that pays 1/20 while it is actually a 1/10. It is a HUGE opportunity, you must bet it if you are an edge chaser. It is a great bet, but the odds are still 1/10. You might lose 18 consecutive times at that bet, but when you win it you will get 20 back so you are a winner. The question is , can you afford to lose 18 times, or even 8 times?
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Target training paces (min/km), calculated from 5K PR 22:49 :
Easy run : 5:48
Tempo run : 4:50
VO2-max run :4:21
Speed form run : 4:02

---

Quote from: adarqui on May 17, 2021, 04:57:01 pm
it's the biggest trick in the run game.. go slow to go fast. it doesn't make sense until it smacks you in the face and you're like ....... wtf?

adarqui

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2017, 02:49:50 am »
+1
there's always that weird side to it too, the "big data crunching" that some people use or "dark methods":

- What if a star player performs worse with a certain high relative humidity?
- You have inside info that he just found out his GF is cheating on him?
- You know someone who has hacked RWB's private facebook/email and he tips you off to some potential red flags, or you correlate his statlines to how often (and when) he posts on FB
- Data showing GSW performs like crap the first game of the season if it's a Monday, 90% of the time

i'm just throwing out some nonsense .. but stuff like that can allow you to need less luck.. at that point though, you're a professional big data gambler - and you're probably rich as FU*K, lol.

:trollface:
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adarqui

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2017, 02:36:35 pm »
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Quote from: fast does lie on March 08, 2017, 06:59:10 am
Quote from: adarqui on March 08, 2017, 02:49:50 am
there's always that weird side to it too, the "big data crunching" that some people use or "dark methods":

- What if a star player performs worse with a certain high relative humidity?
- You have inside info that he just found out his GF is cheating on him?
- You know someone who has hacked RWB's private facebook/email and he tips you off to some potential red flags, or you correlate his statlines to how often (and when) he posts on FB
- Data showing GSW performs like crap the first game of the season if it's a Monday, 90% of the time

i'm just throwing out some nonsense .. but stuff like that can allow you to need less luck.. at that point though, you're a professional big data gambler - and you're probably rich as FU*K, lol.

:trollface:

lol I wish I had the tools to create an algorithim.... maybe we should work together to build one that is better than haralabos voulgaris... the dude's not even a bball player and he built and a complicated algorithm that is world class today in BBALL.....

hah cool, never heard of him. going to check out a few stories:

http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

nice thanks!


Quote
imagine what streetballin aficianados like us can do......  :trollface:

hah ya..

pc
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Mikey

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Re: Does anyone bet on basketball here?
« Reply #6 on: March 08, 2017, 10:33:49 pm »
+1
Nope. I used to spend a bit of time trying it (not on NBA but on other leagues) and found the odds for favourites were always minimal. You get the occasional upset and you've negated all your past wins. I ended up betting on the line using the favourites by a margin of 1-10 as most basketball games tend to be close and you'd get a return of $2.20-$2.50 on the $1. I had varied success. In the end I just thought it was worth more time and trouble than it was worth so I don't bother with it anymore. The amount of people that can genuinely make money from sports betting is small (apart from the bookies).
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